Ukraine shows how it shoots down jet-powered Russian drones, as Moscow seeks to expand production (Ukraine Battlefield update, day 1,671)

Over the course of a few days, Ukrainians released several videos showing Russian jet-powered drones being shot down by interceptor drones.

The mass deployment of Russian jet-powered drones is one of the most negative developments for Ukraine in recent months. Russia produces around 3,000 of them each month, and they currently make up roughly half of the drones Russia deploys to bombard Ukrainian cities every day.

And many of them do so successfully: Ukraine shoots down 60 percent of jet-powered Gerans, compared with more than 90 percent of conventional drones.

When speaking of jet-powered Gerans, there are essentially two types: the Geran-4 and Geran-5. Their specifications are similar, but their shapes differ. While the Geran-4 still retains the delta-wing design of the Geran-2, the Geran-5 is essentially a six-metre cruise missile.

Comparison of the Geran-4 and Geran-5: engine, maximum range, maximum speed and warhead weight. Source: United24Media

Ukraine had already said in the summer that it was working on interceptor drones capable of shooting down this new Russian weapon as well. Speed is crucial: jet-powered drones fly at around 500 km/h. To shoot them down, they must first be caught up with.

It appears that Ukraine is beginning to succeed. Over recent days, it has released five videos showing Russian jet-powered drones being shot down using new types of interceptor drones.

The first video was released by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, indicating why a response to the new type of Gerans is so important for Ukraine. It was the work of Ukraine’s SBU security service.

The video shows interceptor drones of an unknown make taking off, with a delta-wing design. They appear to have jet engines. At the end, one such drone catches up with and strikes a Russian Geran-5.

“A new interceptor drone has been developed and has already been successfully deployed,” Zelensky wrote. He did not disclose the drone’s name.

Report from SSU Head Oleksandr Poklad. There is a good result from the Security Service’s military counterintelligence in defending against jet-powered “shaheds.” A new interceptor drone has been developed and has already been successfully deployed. Step by step, we are moving… pic.twitter.com/cIFp7mThwf

Later that day, he released a second video of another strike.

Today, we have already seen the second successful deployment of a new Ukrainian interceptor drone by the Security Service of Ukraine. SSU military counterintelligence personnel successfully struck a Russian Geran-5 jet-powered drone. I thank the SSU warriors for their precision.… pic.twitter.com/ljIofjAaw3

That same day, the Ukrainian company Wild Hornets published two similar videos. It added another on Monday.

STING S takes down a Geran-5 jet-powered drone-missile ❗️💥 The crew from the 1020th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment took down a Russian Geran-5 using the new STING S. This drone is faster and carries a larger explosive payload than other Geran variants. Big thanks to the… pic.twitter.com/Eg0rQgd1tL

One less jet-powered Shahed: the work of the Sokil crew of the 1020th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment 💥 The daily work of the Paskudy division using interceptor STING drones continues. pic.twitter.com/bZykUnFG1c

“Thanks to the crew’s skill, especially that of the pilot with the call sign ‘Babai’ from the 1,020th Air Defence Regiment, the target was neutralised. The warhead of this type weighs as much as 90 kg and has a range of 950 km,” the company said .

The company told the Militarnyi website that it had already managed to shoot down more than a dozen Russian jet-powered drones.

In this case, the type of drone used for the strike is also clear. It was hit by a STING S drone, developed from the basic STING model with improved aerodynamics and a better engine. The company does not want to disclose its precise specifications, as it is still being tested and has not entered serial production.

On Monday, one account released another video. It shows a Geran-5 attempting to shoot down a SPYS interceptor drone. It is manufactured by the Ukrainian company WIY Drones, although some reports describe it as a Ukrainian-German consortium.

Whilst Ukrainian manufacturers are urgently improving their means to counter the new, significantly upgraded Russian Geran-5s, there is now also good news from Germany. I received a video from a credible source showing the successful interception of a Geran-5 by the new SPYS… pic.twitter.com/IUj6xCcq5s

Some specifications are already known. According to its representatives, the drone can fly at 600 km/h, which is sufficient to match the current speeds of Russian jet-powered drones. Ukraine manufactures the engine itself, which is an advantage over Russia, which must import jet engines for its drones from China, even as it seeks to launch domestic production.

“This is a major advantage for Ukraine, we have developed this industry to the point where we now manufacture both engines and electronics ourselves,” a company representative told Militarnyi in July.

Over the course of a few days, Ukraine has thus released videos of three types of interceptor drone that have demonstrated the ability to shoot down Russian jet-powered drones in combat conditions.

This is good news, but the key question will also be whether production can be scaled up to manufacture enough drones to counter this threat during the winter.

The preceding months have shown that ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones are the main weapons Russia has prepared for winter.

“If Ukraine has found a solution, or solutions, and can scale them up over the next month or two, it could genuinely help defend against the approaching Russian winter campaign,” Financial Times journalist Christopher Miller wrote .

Until then, Ukraine must also focus on stopping these drones on the ground. On Monday, it struck the Russian drone base at Tsymbulovo in the Oryol region. It deployed its own jet-powered drones and Neptune missiles.

According to Ukrainian analyst Bohdan Myroshnykov , it is Russia’s largest and most secure launch site for jet-powered drones.

According to the Ukrainian KiberBorosno account, the attack struck bunkers and damaged hangars and launch sites.

The Russian Military Informant channel also wrote that Ukraine has recently been attacking Russian drone bases in an effort to stop the launch of drones it cannot intercept in the air. “The infrastructure of these facilities is sufficiently fortified to withstand such attacks, however, while their above-ground parts, such as launch ramps, are relatively easy and cheap to restore,” it wrote.

Myroshnykov nevertheless believes this makes sense. “It is impossible to destroy everything on the first or even the tenth attempt. Systematic strikes will, however, bring results. If there are no launches from there for at least three to four days, it will mean they have serious problems,” he wrote .

Politico reported worse news, not only from Ukraine’s perspective but also for European security. It obtained Russian documents outlining plans to build and expand a factory in the Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan, where Russia currently manufactures, among other things, Geran drones based on Iran’s Shahed drones.

According to the documents, whose authenticity, Politico reported , was confirmed by US and Ukrainian officials, Russia plans to expand a factory in Alabuga that will produce carbon fibre. This is important for drone construction, making them sufficiently light and giving them a longer range.

Satellite images from May and June, showing preparatory work on the ground, also confirm the plans to build the factory.

According to the documents, the aim of the factory, which could open as early as next year, would be to produce 500 tonnes of carbon fibre annually. According to experts consulted by the website, this would be enough for 28,000 new Geran-2 drones. Russia has so far imported much of its carbon fibre, and the new factory section could therefore reduce its dependence on imports.

Naturally, carbon fibre is only one component of a drone, and other parts, such as jet engines, may constrain the increase in drone production. These plans concern the future and may not relate only to Ukraine.

“The expansion of the Yelabuga company and its affiliated businesses should not be viewed merely as a problem for the Ukrainian front, but as a long-term threat to the security of all Europe,” Serhii Kuzan, an analyst and director of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, told Politico .

In this context, Marko Mihkelson, chair of the foreign affairs committee in the Estonian parliament, wrote that Russia’s war machine was expanding at an “alarming rate”. He compared 2024 with 2026. According to him, the number of ballistic missiles produced during that period rose from 50 to 1,180, the number of Gerans from 10,000 to 127,000, and the number of FPV drones from four million to 10 million.

Russia’s war machine is scaling up at an alarming speed. Production: 2024 → 2026 (estimated) Ballistic missiles: 50 → 1,180 Shahed/Geran-type attack drones: 10,000 → 127,000 FPV drones: 4 million → 10 million