World Cup shootouts expose risk of late penalty substitutes
Two World Cup knockout matches decided by penalties have highlighted a growing tactical flaw, as data shows players brought on after the 115th minute miss 80 per cent of their spot-kicks.
The second night of the 2026 World Cup knockout rounds saw two of the three matches decided by penalty shootouts. Paraguay produced a major upset by beating Germany 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw following extra time. Later, Morocco secured a 3-2 shootout victory over the Netherlands after an identical 1-1 scoreline.
These matches highlighted a growing tactical trend in modern football where managers substitute players on late in extra time with the sole intention of using them in a potential shootout. However, fresh data from Opta suggests this is a fundamentally flawed strategy. Of the last ten players to be brought on after the 115th minute at either a World Cup or European Championship, eight who took a penalty went on to miss.
The 2026 tournament provided fresh evidence of this phenomenon. Paraguay gambled by introducing former West Ham defender Fabian Balbuena in the 122nd minute, and he became one of two Paraguayan players to miss. The Netherlands also suffered, as Bournemouth forward Justin Kluivert was brought on as a 113th-minute substitute and was one of three Dutch players unable to convert.
Germany experienced mixed success with their substitution strategy against Paraguay. Substitute Nick Woltemade failed to score, but Nadiem Amiri and Jamal Musiala did find the net. The historical record further demonstrates the perils of the extreme late substitution, particularly for England.
In the final of Euro 2020, Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford were both brought on late and subsequently missed their penalties. The pattern extends back to the 2006 World Cup, when Jamie Carragher missed a penalty as a late substitute in a quarter-final defeat to Portugal. There are occasional exceptions that prove the rule regarding timing.
England found success during their Euro 2024 round of 16 victory over Switzerland. Former manager Gareth Southgate brought on Trent Alexander-Arnold and Ivan Toney in the second half of extra time, with both scoring crucial penalties. Crucially, both of their introductions occurred before the 115-minute threshold that defines the high-risk category.
The broader dataset illustrates just how rare success is for these extreme late arrivals. Aside from the failures at the 2026 World Cup, the list of post-115th minute substitutes to miss includes Simone Zaza, Rodri, Pablo Sarabia and Badr Benoun. In fact, only Switzerland’s Zeki Amdouni and Argentina’s Paulo Dybala have ever scored in this specific scenario.
