World Cup final: Spain's record defence set to test Argentina
The World Cup final will pit the top two teams in the FIFA rankings against each other for the first time, with Spain’s historically elite defence poised to be the decisive factor against an Argentina side chasing a 15th consecutive win.
Spain and Argentina will contest the World Cup final on Sunday, marking the first time the champions of Europe and South America have met in the showpiece match. Argentina sit first and Spain second in the FIFA men's rankings. Opta’s supercomputer makes Luis de la Fuente’s side the tournament favourites, though the underlying data suggests the contest is significantly closer than a predicted 45% to 26% win probability in 90 minutes implies.
Spain bring a 37-match unbeaten run into the fixture. For a European audience, the defining narrative is a defensive masterclass that should be discussed for years if Spain secures a second World Cup. They have conceded just 2.15 expected goals (xG) across seven matches, averaging an elite 0.31 per game. To contextualise this consistency, five teams allowed more than 2.15 xG in their opening match alone, and 41 had surpassed that total by the end of the group stage.
Argentina will need to breach that wall to extend a 14-game winning streak. They are the only quarter-finalist to consistently outperform their non-penalty xG per 90 minutes. Yet their own defensive record, while elite, falls just short of Spain's. Argentina were the last of the 47 other competing teams to concede more than 2.15 total xG, doing so only when Yasser Ibrahim put Egypt ahead in the last 16.
The shooting data highlights a contrast in attacking approach. Lionel Messi has taken 34 shots, including two penalties, carrying the primary offensive burden. Spain’s threat is more distributed, with Lamine Yamal taking 23 shots and Mikel Oyarzabal 22. Oyarzabal boasts the best xG per shot average (0.15) among players with at least 10 shots on either side.
Set pieces are unlikely to provide an advantage, as both teams are defensively sound in dead-ball situations without being notably dangerous attacking them. With the teams so evenly matched, the match could ultimately be decided by depth. Mikel Merino and Lautaro Martínez both post higher xG per shot figures than Oyarzabal, at 0.35 and 0.22 respectively. Their ability to profit from big chances in key moments makes either substitute a likely decisive factor.
