Poland warns Russia may weaponise captured Ukrainian drones against NATO
Warsaw’s warning that Moscow could deploy captured Ukrainian drones against NATO marks a potential escalation in hybrid warfare that directly threatens critical infrastructure and regional supply chains.
Russia has captured a large number of Ukrainian drones and could use them to strike NATO territory or stage a false flag attack, Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz warned. Poland’s security committee prioritised the threat on Tuesday, with Kosiniak-Kamysz citing potential drone incursions alongside GPS jamming and sabotage.
For European businesses, this represents a shift from accidental spillover to deliberate targeting of economic assets. Russian electronic warfare has already caused misguided Ukrainian drones to hit an oil storage facility in Latvia, prompting two high-level resignations, while routine GPS interference has repeatedly forced airport closures and disrupted maritime navigation.
Physical sabotage has already disrupted logistics networks, including the disabling of a rail line in eastern Poland last year. Latvian and Lithuanian leaders warned last week that these "limited kinetic operations" are increasingly aimed at critical infrastructure.
Warsaw’s alert is the most specific threat vector identified after a month of public warnings from Eastern European capitals. Officials have cited shared US intelligence indicating Moscow is preparing a hybrid campaign designed to fall short of triggering armed conflict. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted that "the coming months may truly be critical."
Latvian intelligence previously warned the campaign could include "missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems." Officials also fear Moscow might stage a false flag attack on its own soil to justify expanding the war.
"I expect a false flag attack on Russian territory, to which Putin ‘will respond,’" Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in late June. He later added: "The Russians are planning something again; we have credible information."
This coordinated strategy of releasing intelligence publicly mirrors the lead-up to the 2022 invasion, when declassified US reports were credited with delaying the start of the invasion by several weeks. While no primary intelligence has been released to the public this time, Sikorski expressed hope that going public would similarly deter Moscow. The Kremlin has rejected the warnings, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissing them as "scare stories."
