Le Pen defies embezzlement conviction to run in 2027

Marine Le Pen announced she will run for the French presidency in 2027 despite an appeal court confirming her embezzlement conviction. The court handed her a 45-month ban from office, though 30 months were suspended and the remaining 15 were backdated, meaning they have expired. She must still serve one year under house arrest.

Her decision to run overrides her previous pledge to step aside and let her deputy, Jordan Bardella, lead the Rassemblement National ticket. “Because I have the option to appeal, this suspends the sentences handed down by the Court of Appeal,” Le Pen said on French TV. “Tonight, I am a presidential candidate.”

For European markets and investors, the development maintains political uncertainty heading into the 2027 election cycle. France's two-round voting system means the Rassemblement National is consistently projected to advance to the second round regardless of whether Le Pen or Bardella leads the party. Polling over the past year shows either candidate beating hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon in a runoff.

However, the choice of candidate alters the nature of the economic uncertainty. Le Pen, 57, carries political baggage relevant to markets, including past support for Vladimir Putin and funding her party took from Kremlin-linked banks. Her economic platform has previously drawn sharp criticism; in a 2017 debate, Emmanuel Macron exposed the contradictions in her economic policy.

Bardella, 30, lacks this particular history but is regarded by some in his own party as an intellectual lightweight who struggles in uncontrolled debates. French second-round elections involve intense scrutiny of platforms and a mandatory three-hour head-to-head TV debate. This format requires a deep in-depth knowledge of policies and the ability to defend them.

At this stage, polling indicates that only centrist Edouard Philippe, a former Macron prime minister, consistently beats the Rassemblement National candidate in a second-round matchup. Right-wing, centrist, or centre-left opponents make the race closer. The ultimate outcome remains heavily dependent on who emerges to challenge the far right, but the baseline probability of a Rassemblement National presence in the final runoff persists.