2026 World Cup format raises penalty shootout stakes
An expanded knockout round at the 2026 tournament will likely yield more shootouts, placing new scrutiny on the historical penalty records of European nations.
The 2026 World Cup will introduce a last-32 knockout round, making penalty shootouts statistically more probable after a record five occurred in 2022. Analysis of 320 spot-kicks taken across 35 World Cup shootouts since 1982 reveals stark differences in how nations handle the pressure.
European teams have experienced wildly varying fortunes. Spain now holds the record for the most missed World Cup shootout penalties, with nine, after failing to convert a single kick against Morocco in 2022. La Roja have lost four of their five shootouts. Conversely, Germany has scored 17 of its 18 attempts, winning all four of its shootouts.
Croatia has also won all four of its shootouts, relying heavily on a goalkeeping pipeline from the city of Zadar. Danijel Subasic and Dominik Livakovic, both from Croatia's fifth-largest city, saved four penalties apiece in 2018 and 2022 respectively. They are joined by Argentina's Emiliano Martinez in demonstrating that psychological tactics can be as valuable as pure shot-stopping.
Tactical choices significantly impact outcomes. Forwards have a 75% conversion rate, compared to 65% for defenders. Furthermore, data strongly discourages central kicks. While goalkeepers save slightly fewer central attempts, 19.2% of central kicks miss the target entirely, compared to just 5.7% of shots directed to either side.
The order of takers shows a clear pressure curve. The first kicker for a team converts 72.9% of the time, but this drops to 59.4% for the eighth overall taker—the second player in the fourth round. This suggests the burden of keeping a team alive before the final scheduled kick severely impacts performance.
Managers facing extra time must also weigh the risks of late substitutions. Of the five players brought on in the final five minutes specifically for shootouts, only two have scored. Paulo Dybala succeeded for Argentina in 2022, but late subs for Spain, England and Morocco all failed. The exception is goalkeepers: the Netherlands' Tim Krul was brought on in the 121st minute in 2014 and saved two penalties to secure victory.
As the tournament expands, these historical patterns will become critical reference points. With Argentina and Croatia setting the standard for shootout efficiency, European nations with poor historical records may need to fundamentally reassess their extra-time strategies.
